It’s hard to stay on top

As part of my fascination with the history of the semiconductor industry, I’ve recently been reviewing data on the annual top 20 semiconductor companies since 1987. Using revenue data compiled by Gartner Dataquest (through 1999) and iSupply (2000 – 2010), it’s been very interesting to see what changes have come about at the top of the heap in our industry. Here is a brief synopsis of some major events in the lives of the top-20 semiconductor companies since 1987:

• SGS-THOMSON was formed with the merger of SGS Microelettronica and Thomson Semiconducteurs in 1987, and changed its name to STMicroelectronics in 1998.
• Harris Semiconductor was formed in 1988 when Harris bought GE’s Solid State division, and was spun out by Harris as Intersil in 1999. GE was a top-20 semiconductor company in 1987, and Harris last saw the top 20 in 1990.
• Matsushita changed its business name to Panasonic in 2008, which bought Sanyo in 2009. Sanyo was last in the top 20 in 1999.
• The memory businesses of NEC and Hitachi were combined and spun out as Elpida Memory in 1999, which then took over the Mitsubishi memory business in 2003.
• The logic business of Hitachi and Mitsubishi were combined to form Renesas Technology in 2003, taking Hitachi and Mitsubishi completely out of the semiconductor business. Renasas then took over the semiconductor business of NEC in 2010 and is now Renesas Electronics. NEC was the #1 semiconductor maker in 1987 – 1991, and has been in the top 20 every year until 2010.
• Hyundai merged with LG Semiconductor in 1999, and changed its semiconductor business name to Hynix Semiconductor in 2001. LG was last listed in the top 20 in 1997. Hyundai first joined the top 20 in 1995.
• Motorola spun out its semiconductor business as Freescale Semiconductor in 2004.
• Philips spun out its semiconductor business as NXP Semiconductors in 2006.
• Siemens spun out its semiconductor business as Infineon Technologies in 1999, which spun out its memory business as Qimonda in 2006, which went bankrupt in 2009. Qimonda was ranked #16 in 2006.
• AMD spun out its Fujitsu joint venture Flash memory business (started in 1993) as Spansion in 2005, and the rest of its semiconductor business as GlobalFoundries in 2009, which merged with Chartered Semiconductor in 2010. Spansion made it as high as 24 in the semiconductor rankings in 2006.
• AT&T spun out its semiconductor business as Lucent Technologies in 1996, which spun out its semiconductor business as Agere Systems in 2000, which was bought by fabless LSI Logic in 2007 (now LSI Corporation). Agere was last in the top 20 in 2001.
• OKI Electric Industry dropped out of the top 20 after 1993, and sold its semiconductor business to Rohm in 2008. Rohm was last in the top 20 in 2008.
• Other companies to drop out of the top 20 were Sharp (last listed in 2009), Analog Devices (2004), Fujitsu (2004), IBM (2005),
• National Semiconductor bought Fairchild Semiconductor in 1987 and spun it out again in 1997, It bought Cyrix in 1997 and sold it 1999. National was last in the top 20 in 1998, and was bought by Texas Instruments in 2011.

And those are just some of the changes in the top 20 over the last 25 years. It’s always a wild ride in the semiconductor business.

Next post, I’ll look at the current make-up of the 2010 semiconductor top-20 list and see what has changed in the last 25 years.

Quote of the Day

“The main lesson that I have learned over time is that a good scientist is a humble and listening scientist and not one that is sure 100 percent in what he reads in the textbooks.”

– Dr. Dan Shechtman, interviewed in the New York Times after learning that he had won the 2011 Noble Prize for Chemistry.

RWO

Believe it or not, one of the things I was looking forward to when I came back from New Zealand in August was to start running again with my old training group. Alas, the stark change from running in New Zealand to running in the Austin heat was not good for me. On my first run I hurt my knee. It didn’t hurt much so I didn’t pay much attention to it, but after running for two more weeks it was getting worse. I rested for two weeks, but it didn’t improve. So off to the doctor I went. After x-rays and an MRI, I found that I had torn the meniscus in two places. The net result is I go in for surgery a week from Monday. After that, 6 weeks of rehab should put me back in shape to run again – if all goes well. We’ll have to wait and see, but hopefully I’ll be back to training the first of December, possibly in time for races in February.

Could it be I’m suffering from RWO – running while old?

What to do with an old lithography tool?

So you’ve got an old lithography tool hanging around. It doesn’t have the resolution (or any other spec) needed for production of pretty much anything that anyone wants to make. What can you do with it?

One option is to sell it to a Hollywood prop house. Apparently, that is what someone did with an old Cobilt mask aligner (at least, I think it is a Cobilt). It has probably shown up in several movies, but the one I saw it in was Silent Running, a good but not great sci-fi movie from 1972. Here are some shots from the movie.

Cobilt Aligner in Silent Running
Bruce Dern as Freeman Lowell limping past the mask aligner after murdering his crewmates.

Cobilt Aligner in Silent Running

Cobilt Aligner in Silent Running
Lowell using the mask aligner to reprogram the company droids to answer to him.

You can’t keep a good lithography tool down, not if you have a little imagination.

For my Friends in Austin…

Oktoberfest is the German celebration of beer. In the days before refrigeration, Germans drank beer only in the cool weather months. Thus, Oktoberfest was the celebration of the availability of the first batch of beer after a long, dry summer. It is two weeks long, ending the first weekend in October (thus, most of Oktoberfest occurs in September).

The end of September is a common time for various beer celebrations. Here is a good one:

Texas Craft Brewers Festival
An Outdoor Beer Sampling Festival Dedicated to the Fine Art of Craft Brewing
September 24, 2011
2 – 8pm
Fiesta Gardens, Austin, TX
http://www.texascraftbrewersfestival.org/

I’m Back, and It’s Hot

After two months in New Zealand (and an inadvertent week in Australia), I’m back in Austin. Just in time to watch my home town break the previous record of 69 days above 100F (set in 1925). We will be way past that mark this year – the forecast calls for 110F on Saturday. But, as all of my friends here remind me, I am not allowed to complain (especially after emailing them pictures of snow last month). So I won’t.

A Winning Idea

I’ve always been suspicious when one’s ideology matches perfectly with one’s self interest. Do you really think in such a case that this ideology won out fairly in the great battle of ideas? More likely there was no battle at all. I have no respect for the Me Party, with their shouts of my rights and your responsibilities. So when I see someone promoting responsibility and fairness over self-interest, I take notice of such an increasingly rare event. Thus, with his recent New York Times editorial, I have one more reason to respect Warren Buffett.

Another Snow Day in Christchurch

It is one week before I head back to Austin after a two-month stay in New Zealand. While Texas is experiencing record heat and drought, Christchurch is having its second snow day this winter. Heavy snow falls here only about once every 10 years, so to have two big snow days three weeks apart is quite unusual. The University of Canterbury is closed today, but hopefully will be back to normal before my class on Wednesday. I expect major shock when I get off the plane in seven days.

Snow Day in Christchurch

Is EUV the SST of Lithography?

Analogies with Moore’s Law abound. Virtually any trend looks linear on a log-linear plot if the time period is short enough. Some people hopefully compare their industry’s recent history to Moore’s Law, wishfully predicting future success with the air of inevitability that is usually attached to Moore’s Law. Others look to some past trend in the hopes of understanding the future of Moore’s Law. A common analogy of the latter sort is the trend of airplane speed in the last century.

Airspeed Trend

Plotting the cruising speed of new planes against their first year of commercial use, the trend from the 1910s to the 1950s was linear on a log-scale, just like a Moore’s Law plot. But then something different happens. As airspeed approaches the speed of sound, the trend levels off – a physical limit changed the economics of air travel. The equivalent of Moore’s Law for air travel had ended.

For me, the interesting data point is the Concord Supersonic Transport (SST). First flown commercially in 1976, the Mach 2 jet was perfectly in line with the historical log-speed trend of the first 50 years of the industry. And the SST was a technical success – it did everything that was expected of it. Except, of course, make money. The economic limit had been reached, but that didn’t stop many bright people from insisting that the trend must continue, spending billions to make it so. But technological invention couldn’t change the economic picture, and supersonic transportation never caught on.

So here goes my analogy. I think extreme ultraviolet (EUV) will be the SST of lithography. I have little doubt that the technology can be made to work. If it fails (I hope it won’t, but I think it will), the failure will be economic. Like the SST, EUV lithography will never be economical to operate in a mass (manufacturing) market. We can do it, but that doesn’t mean we should.

Of course, this analogy is imperfect, as all such analogies are. Air travel went through just three doublings of speed in 50 years, as opposed to the 36 doublings of transistor count per chip in the last 50 years of semiconductor manufacturing. And the economics of the industries are hardly the same. Still, the analogy has enough weight to make one think. We’ll know soon enough – EUV lithography will likely succeed or fail in the next two years.

As an aside, the first time I heard someone mention the analogy between airspeed and transistor trends was in the early 1990s, when Richard Freeman of AT&T gave a talk. The subject of his presentation? Soft x-ray lithography, what we now call EUV.

Musings of a Gentleman Scientist